Here's the fantasy:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/fact-sheet-high-speed-intercity-passenger-rail-program-tampa-orlando-miami
Awardees : Florida Department of Transportation
Total Approximate Funding (entire corridor) : $1,250,000,000
Benefiting State : Florida
Miles of Track : New - 84, Planned - 240, Total - 324 miles
Grants from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) will go toward the creation of a new high-speed rail corridor that connects Tampa Bay, Orlando, Miami and other communities in central and south Florida.
This region has experienced significant population growth in recent decades, as well as increases in the volume of visitors, leading to strains on area roadways and airports. Currently, the region is almost entirely reliant on automobiles for transportation between these metro areas, which together have a population of over 10 million people and account for two of the nation’s 20 largest metro areas.
The new high-speed rail service will provide an attractive and competitive transportation alternative for residents and visitors in the area. The first phase of the service will connect Orlando to Tampa, with intermediate service to several of central Florida’s major tourist destinations. The second phase will connect Orlando to Miami, following either an inland or coastal route.
It is estimated that these investments in high-speed rail will create thousands of jobs throughout Florida, which has one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation.
Summary of Corridor Investments
Tampa - Orlando: This investment will initiate the development of the Tampa to Orlando segment, with speeds reaching 168mph and 16 round trips per day on brand new track dedicated solely to high-speed rail. Trip time between the two cities on the new line will be less than one hour, compared to around 90 minutes by car. This project will create jobs and generate economic activity as 84 miles of track are constructed, stations are built or enhanced, and equipment is purchased. Completion of this phase is anticipated in 2014.
Orlando - Miami: Scheduled for completion in 2017, the 230-mile Orlando to Miami line is expected to operate at speeds up to 186mph, reducing travel time between these two cities to approximately two hours, or roughly half as long as it takes to drive the same route. Ultimately, 20 round trips per day between Orlando and Miami are planned. Although no ARRA funding will be used for this segment, significant planning activities are on-going to prepare for this second phase of Florida’s high-speed rail vision.
Here's the reality:
orlandosentinel.com/news/local/os-high-speed-rail-scott-20110106,0,5295795.story
OrlandoSentinel.com
Study: Cost overruns, fewer passengers in
Orlando-Tampa high speed train's future
Orlando-Tampa high speed train's future
By Dan Tracy, Orlando Sentinel
By Dan Tracy, Orlando Sentinel
12:54 AM EST, January 7, 2011
A high-speed train that would link Orlando to Tampa could be plagued by costly overruns and carry far fewer passengers than anticipated, according to a study released Thursday by an adviser to new Florida Gov. Rick Scott.
The 24-page report, written by two members of the Libertarian nonprofit think tank Reason Foundation, concluded that Florida should either cancel the $2.7 billion project or write a contract that prohibits the state from contributing any tax dollars to it.
Under former Gov. Charlie Crist, the state pledged almost $300 million to help pay for the train.
One of the study's coauthors, Robert Poole, said he served on Scott's transition team that studied the state Department of Transportation.
Poole said he has not talked to Scott about the issue, but his report is likely to add to the uncertainty growing about the project, considered a linchpin of President Barack Obama's plan to create a national network of high-speed trains.
Two other states, Ohio and Wisconsin, recently backed out of commitments for high-speed trains paid for with federal grants. About $342 million of that money was redirected to Florida, giving the state $2.4 billion in federal dollars for the Orlando-Tampa route.
Scott has been skeptical of the plan, and in a brief discussion with reporters from the Miami Herald on Thursday he said he was waiting for another study — possibly completed next month — before deciding what to do about it.
"At that point, I would go through and see what the feasibility is and what the cost to the state will be," Scott said.
Scott also said he would talk to potential bidders about possibly funding part of the train. Attempts to reach the governor's office for further comment were unsuccessful.
As many as seven international consortiums made up of some of the largest transit companies in the world have said they are interested. Some have indicated a willingness to invest their own money.
Poole said his research indicates that large passenger-rail projects often cost 45 percent more than anticipated. That could add as much as $1.2 billion to the cost.
And, he said, ridership studies often are "wildly optimistic," although he did not predict what the Orlando train's passenger count might be.
The state has estimated the train would carry 2.4 million passengers annually, which the study said is two-thirds of the ridership of the well-established Amtrak express service in the densely populated Northeast.
"History tells us that cost overruns could run into the billions, and ridership shortfalls will likely leave taxpayers with an open-ended bill for operating subsidies," said Wendell Cox, who co-wrote the report.
Poole predicted a "very expensive nightmare for taxpayers" unless unbreakable restrictions are added to the contract forbidding state subsidies.
State Senate President Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, who in 2009 voted to approve the state spending for the train, said Wednesday that he had changed his mind. The state, he said, cannot afford it.
U.S. Rep. John Mica, R- Winter Park, and chairman of the powerful House transportation committee, said it is not unreasonable to seek private investment.
"It's very doable," he said. "I wouldn't put any more [tax] money into it, federal or state."
Mica also has recommended building the train in stages, with the first one running only from Orlando International Airport to the Orange County Convention Center and Walt Disney World.
Poole made the same suggestion.
"That would be a good test case," Poole said, "and limit the risk to everybody."
The train, scheduled to be running by 2015, also is supposed to stop at Lakeland and just east of downtown Tampa.
With an expected top speed of 168 mph, it could travel from OIA to Tampa in about 44 minutes, as opposed to an hour and a half by car.
Dan Tracy can be reached at dtracy@orlandosentinel.com or 407-420-5444.
Copyright © 2011, Orlando Sentinel
==============================
Reason Alert - January 7, 2011
Tampa to Orlando High-Speed Rail Could Cost $3 Billion More Than Expected
If the proposed Tampa to Orlando high-speed rail line goes over budget or fails to meet ridership expectations Florida taxpayers could get stuck with a bill of up to $3 billion, according to a new Reason Foundation report. Long-standing research shows costs are underestimated on nine out of every 10 large passenger rail transportation projects, with cost overruns averaging 45 percent. If the Tampa-Orlando rail line were to go over budget by 45 percent Florida taxpayers would be on the hook for $1.2 billion more than the $280 million currently forecast. The study warns that Florida may be miscalculating the costs of high-speed rail by even more than that. Consider that the expected cost of building the first segment of California’s high-speed rail line is 111 percent higher than Florida’s - $67.8 million per mile compared to $32.1 million per mile in Florida. The costs of the Tampa to Orlando system would be $3 billion more than advertised using California’s estimated cost per mile.
http://click.email.reason.org/qs=a59f235e31cd4247ed6fa607a828790db19e17e877ed006ab52f94b2c0528fd8>
Full Study
http://click.email.reason.org/qs=a59f235e31cd4247b9abfa092f54d304b62b48479f340f61beec1ec0ed07f109>Orlando
Sentinel - Study: Cost overruns, fewer passengers in Orlando-Tampa high speed train's future
===================================
Taken from:
Vol. 22, No. 1
http://www.innobriefs.com>www.innobriefs.com
January 5, 2011
The Uncertain Future of the High-Speed Rail Program
An Editorial Point of View
[edit.]
Item: The Florida Tampa-to-Orlando high-speed line is still in doubt as Gov. Rick Scott ponders the project's cost and financial impact. His verdict is due in February but, with Florida's budget deficit at $3.5 billion, the Governor says all state agencies, including the Department of Transportation and its Florida Rail Enterprise, will have to justify every penny they want to spend. This involves a state match of $280 million plus future operating costs of the high-speed passenger service. The 84-mile line with its four stops has been described by TIME magazine's Michael Grunwald as having the feel of a "glorified Disney shuttle" --- too short and too slow to earn the distinction of a bullet train. As one bus industry executive observed, this is a market more suitable for a "Megabus"-type of intercity luxury bus service which could be provided at no cost to the Florida taxpayers. We think the Governor would be well advised to consider the express bus alternative before embarking on a $2.7 billion rail project.
Kenneth Orski
Editor/Publisher
Innovation NewsBriefs
###
Note: the NewsBriefs can also be accessed at
Did I already mention that the HSR line doesn't actually go into Tampa or Orlando, but stops outside of town?
