Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Poll-Dancing to the beat of High-Speed Rail


Here's what a push-poll looks like.  You know what they are; "When did you stop beating your wife?"  "Do you like cuddly puppies?" Etc.   

The questions are rigged to tell you what they want your opinion to be.  In this one from the San Mateo Daily Journal, the text of the first choices, which are strongly pro-HSR, is much longer than that of the third choice, which is anti-HSR. 

The opening question is quite muddy.  What is that "phased approach?" What do they mean by "initially?" How will it "run on the existing Caltrain right of way?" It's very difficult to respond to a question that leaves so much unknown.

You should also know that "electrify Caltrain" is code language for bringing HSR on the Caltrain corridor, which is what so many residents on the Peninsula object to.  That first choice suggests that if you didn't support the so called "phased implementation" approach, you would obviously be against saving money, and you would want peoples' properties to be taken.  Which is to say, they loaded this opening question with baggage that you can't be against. 

As far as the second choice is concerned, needless to say, no one, not even the HSR supporters, would favor running a train at 220 mph ("full speed") through urban developments.  They wouldn't do it anyhow.  They will run them, if they develop the corridor, at 125 mph. So, it's an absurd choice. That's because they want you to agree to the first one.

The history of high-speed rail in California is the history of a number of such polls, each one invariably resulting in a strong favorability for the trains. Some questionnaires are far more elaborate than this one.  Since this poll is self-selecting, it's credibility is, by definition, zero.

The purpose of these comments here is not that you should take this particular poll, but that polls, unless they are rigorously and statistically reliable, with techniques like "stratified random sampling," "margin of error" identified, and extremely carefully and objectively worded questions and choices, are nothing more than thinly veiled marketing tools, such as this one.

Such polls demonstrate the sleaziness that has been the hallmark of the California High-Speed Rail operation from its very beginnings, several decades ago.

If you still care about it, you can see the running results by clicking on it; open the URL. 
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Daily Journal Quick Poll

Do you support a phased approach to building high-speed rail that would initially run on the existing Caltrain right of way?

0 Yes, it would electrify Caltrain, save it money and save properties from being taken.

0 No, high-speed rail should run full speed through the Peninsula.

0 I don't support high-speed rail at all.

0 Not sure.