This article from the Press-Enterprise captures the current situation very well. The Legislative Analyst's Office Report states what a lot of people have come to realize on their own. The HSR project in California, which won't begin construction for another year and a half, has no rational justification for continuing. The rail authority knows, as we all do, that there will be no more funding from Washington. They may get several million more before election time next year, but, that's it.
That means, do they begin construction in the Central Valley or don't they? Logically and economically, it makes no sense to waste all those billions on a project that will be DOA (dead on arrival). With the funding they are already promised, they can lay around 100 miles of track across expensive farmland, ruining it, and that's all.
The tracks can't be used by high-speed trains, since they don't have enough money to buy them, and they don't have enough money to electrify the system to operate the trains, even if they did have them. There aren't enough people living in the Central Valley to ride the train if it existed, since the ticket costs will be so high. All this is obvious to everyone, including all the members of the CHSRA Board and the Governor.
So, why don't they declare a graceful termination and shut it down? Because, as this blog has said from the beginning, it's not about the train, it's about the money. The Democrats are determined to get the billions from Washington into this state any way that they can, for any reason whatsoever. Bad and pointless project? Doesn't matter! Get those dollars.
Why? Several reasons. The Democrats need to get re-elected in November 2012. In order to do that, they need to mitigate California's disastrous unemployment and make a substantive positive difference in the economy. And, all those Democratic politicians need to be able to run for re-election on a platform of having brought those billions to their districts and states. Bragging rights!
Yes, there is a river of rhetoric about high-speed rail. Save the environment, carbon emission reduction, fuel costs and fuel from overseas, traffic congestion on the highways and in the air, moving people from one end of California to the other "faster, better, cheaper." Many experts have systematically contested all these make-believe benefits and demonstrated that all these claims are vapor-ware. No substance. Gross marketing hyperbole.
Also, especially those closest to the project, insist on our need to replicate the high-speed rail systems of other nations. Indeed, these "why don't we. . " presumptions go all the way from the President down some of our local Assemblywomen, and even more local politicians. Why don't we have HSR like Spain, they ask? The simple answer is because Spain is now bankrupt, and building their train helped that along significantly.
Anyhow, it is becoming daily more apparent that there are no reasons to prolong this useless project and keep it on its financial heart-lung machine. Time to pull the plug.
I would add, parenthetically, that understanding has not yet reached most of my colleagues on the Peninsula. And that is quite unfortunate. I wonder why not.
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Rail ruin
10:00 PM PDT on Sunday, May 15, 2011
The Press-Enterprise
A high-speed rail system cannot run on moonshine and pipe dreams. California does not need to revamp its current plans for a bullet train, but scrap them entirely. The Legislature should put an end to a scheme that defies fiscal reality and risks a massively expensive boondoggle.
The state's legislative analyst released a report last week sharply critical of the high-speed rail project's management and finances. The analyst recommended putting Caltrans or another state agency in charge of the project, instead of an appointed and largely unaccountable board. The report also called for relocating the initial phase from the Central Valley to a more heavily traveled part of the state.
But the state should instead junk plans that would pour billions of taxpayer dollars into a project that does not serve a pressing need. California has better uses for transportation money than faster train travel between Los Angeles and San Francisco.
The finances alone should scare Californians away from this high-tech gamble. The California High-Speed Rail Authority projects the Los Angeles-San Francisco line will cost $43 billion. But the analyst notes that the projected cost of the initial Central Valley segment has ballooned from $2.8 billion to nearly $4.5 billion. On that basis, the cost of the entire project would be at least $67 billion -- and probably even higher.
The rail authority is counting on $17 billion to $19 billion from the federal government to build the system, and has landed about $3.6 billion in federal funds so far. But a federal government with trillion-dollar deficits and enormous long-term fiscal challenges is unlikely to provide anywhere near the billions the rail plan requires.
The existing federal money also comes tied to starting construction with a stretch of line between Bakersfield and Fresno in the Central Valley, hardly a high-traffic route. And with the high probability that there would not be enough funding to complete the rest of the line, the state would be stuck with a partially completed rail system that could not possibly be self-supporting.
The rail project would be a huge drain on taxpayers in any case, however. Voters approved about $9 billion in bonds for the bullet train in 2008. But the analyst notes that debt service on that amount would run about $1 billion a year for two decades. And that money would come from the state's general fund, which already faces a roughly $20 billion annual gap between spending and revenue.
The report says the independent rail authority has no real obligation to consider state finances in building the train line, which is why the analyst suggests bringing the project under state control.
But the high-speed rail plans do not need better management as much as a cold dose of reality.
California should avoid a financial wreck, not board a fast train to fiscal disaster.
