Short, sweet and to the point. One of the central promises of the high-speed rail project in California and in the United States is jobs, jobs, jobs. OK, so it's a lousy project with lousy management, but, it will still be a huge job creator. Right? Isn't that what the supporting Democratic politicians have been telling us, even as they get all their information from the rail authority which exists only to build this crazy project?
Well, Ray Reilly writes this opinion letter to The Bakersfied Californian. You know that Bakersfield is the southern town in the Central Valley that will be close to the end of the first phase of construction of the rail corridor to be built starting in 2012. It won't be able to run any high-speed trains, which the rail authority won't be buying, anyhow.
That means, Bakersfield will receive only one promised blessing for all its unemployed; jobs. Ray has a different, and more realistic take on this, using numbers that the rail authority has not cooked up. All this pertains to the Central Valley, not merely Bakersfield. That's the primary justification for starting the construction there, the high unemployment rate.
The Unions and the politicians are enjoying considerable delusions about all this. Not even mentioned by Reilly is the fact that construction won't begin for at least another year, year and a half. What are all those unemployed construction workers supposed to do until then? This is a gossamer project built on gossamer promises. None of us should be counting on this happening.
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The Bakersfield Californian
HOME > OPINION > LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Tuesday, May 17 2011 11:00 PM
HSR numbers don't add up
With regard to high-speed rail, The Bakersfield Californian has lost its objectivity and professionalism.
The May 15 Sunday Forum article, "HSR's allure more than just speed," by Rob Ball of the Kern Council of Governments, makes absolutely false statements about jobs. Ball refers to "creating about 72,000 construction jobs annually for three years in the San Joaquin Valley"; that 216,000 man-years at $80,000 per man-year (union wages, fringes, insurance, overhead and profit) is $17.3 billion. Ball also says, "The rail authority anticipates spending $1.8 billion on track per year."; that is $5.4 billion. Where will HSR get the $11.9 billion shortfall for right-of-way, materials and engineering?
Two years ago, an HSR engineer, in a presentation at Rabobank Theater, told me the total system labor estimate was 160,000 man-years -- 16,000 jobs for the 10 years of construction. This figure is about 30 percent of the total project estimate -- not unreasonable. [Note: this is 16,000 jobs; not 160,000 jobs!]
Then, Ball quotes unprovable figures about other countries' experiences -- property values near stations; increases in office space and extra jobs and housing. These are experiences in walled towns, with no parking and premiums for 400-square-foot apartments. It just isn't the same.
C'mon, guys, get the stars out of your eyes. Didn't the recent report in The Californian stating that the High-Speed Rail Authority didn't know the exact number of tunnels through the Tehachapis -- although it would be somewhere between 12 and 18 tunnels (and a difference in cost, naturally) -- raise some eyebrows?
There is no business plan, no current ridership figures, no estimate, no schedule. This has all the elements of a Ponzi scheme.
RAY REILLY
Bakersfield
